Home Buyers Find Increasing Options as Shopping Resumes

In January, falling mortgage rates sparked renewed interest among home buyers, drawing in the first wave of eager purchasers following a significant drop in home sales the previous year. Many prospective buyers, who had paused their search when borrowing rates rose, resumed their hunt, leading to a notable increase in real estate showings by 9.9% compared to the beginning of the year.

Buyers are capitalizing on the recent decline in mortgage rates, which peaked at 7.79% in October but have since fluctuated between 6.6% and 6.7%, with the average rate reaching 6.63% last week, according to Freddie Mac. This rate decrease is expected to boost sales activity in 2024, as evidenced by the rise in mortgage purchase applications to their highest seasonally adjusted level since April before experiencing a slight decline the following week. Additionally, there has been a notable increase in purchasing power for home buyers since the peak in mortgage rates, with a $3,000 monthly budget resulting in almost $40,000 in additional purchasing power, according to Redfin. Moreover, there are signs of increasing inventory in the housing market, with active listings rising compared to the previous year and a decrease in the typical time on the market, indicating a potential improvement in availability for buyers.

Housing Market Predictions Shift for the Year

The Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain rates between 5.25% and 5.5% indicates a cautious approach to combatting inflation, which remains slightly above the desired target of 2%. Despite signs of progress, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the need for further confidence in hitting the target before considering rate cuts. This decision influences mortgage rates, which have been decreasing faster than expected, reaching levels anticipated for later in the year, according to Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com.

The strong jobs market, highlighted by a significant increase in hiring and wages, offers potential benefits for the housing market. Job growth gives consumers more purchasing power, particularly for significant investments such as home buying. However, the trajectory of mortgage rates hinges on the evolution of inflation data, with the Federal Reserve waiting for sustained improvement before considering rate cuts. Hale underscores the importance of ongoing progress towards the inflation target, as it will determine the Fed’s confidence in implementing rate cuts to stimulate the housing market.

ICE Identifies Optimistic Trends in Housing and Mortgage Markets for Spring Homebuying Season

Housing affordability has improved recently, with the share of income needed to buy the median home dropping nearly five percentage points since October. This positive trend, coupled with an improving inventory deficit, suggests a more favorable housing market environment in the coming months, according to the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). Mortgage rates have also declined, reaching 6.71% as of January 24, over a whole percentage point lower than their peak in October 2023, contributing to a positive outlook for the 2024 housing market, notes ICE Vice President Andy Walden.

Walden highlights encouraging signals in recent market trends, including improved affordability, declining monthly home price growth, and increasing for-sale inventory. Although home prices rose by 5.6% in 2023, Walden emphasizes the nuanced nature of the data, indicating positive movements in rates, affordability, and inventory. The latest ICE Mortgage Monitor Report underscores the interest-rate-driven nature of the current market, with increased purchase mortgage demand and modest improvement in the refinance market. As interest rates ease, the potential for further growth in refinance activity emerges, particularly among borrowers with mortgages originating in 2023, presenting an opportunity for originators to engage with potential customers.

Source:

Vaimberg, Ron. “Weekly Newsletter – January 6, 2023.” Ron Vaimberg International, Ron Vaimberg, 6 Jan. 2023, https://rvionline.thinkific.com/courses/take/rvi-weekly-newsletter/texts/41523497-weekly-newsletter-january-6-2023.