US Mortgage Rates Expected to Fall to 5.5% in 2024

The Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey predicts a decline in US mortgage rates, anticipating the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to drop to 5.5% by the end of the year, down from the current 6.69%. This potential reduction sparks optimism for the real estate market, which has faced challenges due to high borrowing costs, causing a decline in home sales. The Federal Reserve’s indication of possible interest rate cuts in 2024 has led 57% of survey respondents to view real estate as a more attractive investment than in 2023.

Despite the anticipated improvement, the real estate market’s recovery is expected to be gradual, with only a tenth of survey participants believing that a 6% rate would significantly increase single-family inventory. The struggle in commercial real estate, particularly offices, continues as remote work trends persist, impacting valuations and causing challenges in refinancing. Survey respondents suggest that converting empty offices into residential properties, such as apartments or condominiums, could be a viable solution to address the challenges faced by the commercial real estate sector.

Senator Warren Urges Fed Chair Powell to Lower ‘Astronomical’ Rates and Ease Housing Pressure

Sen. Elizabeth Warren and three other Democratic lawmakers urge Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to lower interest rates to enhance housing affordability. In a letter, the senators emphasized the negative impact of “astronomical” rates, causing a substantial rise in overall home purchasing costs for consumers. Expensive housing has contributed to a downturn in public sentiment toward the economy, a critical issue for President Joe Biden’s reelection campaign. The Fed’s indication of potential rate cuts in 2024 has brought relief to the housing market, signaling a rebound in mortgage demand and a resurgence of homebuyers who had been cautious amid rising rates.

The Federal Reserve’s previous rate hikes and a supply shortage led to soaring housing prices, impacting demand as buyers hoped for a market correction. The current freeze in buyer-seller activity can be relieved if the Fed follows through with its plan to cut rates in 2024, potentially revitalizing the housing market that has faced challenges in recent years due to high rates and limited supply.

Pending Home Sales Surge by 8.3%

Pending home sales surged by 8.3% in December, reaching a Pending Home Sales Index of 77.3, with a 1.3% year-over-year increase. The Midwest, South, and West saw monthly and yearly gains, while the Northeast recorded a decline. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, credited falling mortgage rates and stable home prices for the positive start in the housing market in 2024. However, Yun emphasized that increased supply is crucial to meeting potential demand.

NAR’s Economic Outlook for January 2024 predicts a 13% year-over-year increase in existing home sales for 2024, reaching 4.62 million, and a 15.8% increase in 2025, totaling 5.35 million. The annual median home price is expected to rise by 1.4% to $395,100 in 2024 and increase by 2.6% to $405,200 in 2025. Yun anticipates significant growth in home sales over the next two years as the market returns to normal activity and predicts four interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2024.